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The independent sector, particularly at the higher acuity end in recent years, has benefitted from historic and current trends in demand for specialist care and hospital provision.

Going forward, demand for care placements will continue to increase and will be largely driven by underlying population growth…

By 2025 there will be an estimated 353,000 additional older people with substantial dependencies.

With an ageing population and increasing numbers of people suffering from dementia, trends show a projected growth in demand for both residential and nursing home provision for the elderly population over the next five years.

Findings suggest that at current rates of provision, 71,215 additional care home beds will be needed by 2025.

Between 2008 and 2017, supply of beds increased at a rate of 0.25% per annum – a net gain of 10,500 beds over the period. 71,215 additional beds would represent a 15.3% increase on current supply; this implies a need to develop 8,902 beds per
annum (1.78% growth per annum) through 2025.

Population projections indicate that the number of people in England aged 65 and over is projected to increase by approximately 7% between 2017 and 2021 to 10.8 million; whilst the population over 85 years of age is expected to increase by 12% over the same period.

Sadly, consideration should also be made for dementia, one of the fastest-growing causes of disability in later life, sitting ahead of some cancers, cardiovascular disease and stroke. In England, an estimated 720,000 people over the age of 65 are suffering from dementia in 2018. This figure is expected to increase to 776,000 million in 2021, with many of these people requiring full-time care.